No one in the Tibetan community lay or ordained, ordinary or high tulku can ever replace HHDL. No one has ever groomed anyone else to replace HHDL because every Tibetan believed they would return to a free independent Tibet within HHDL's lifetime. Obviously and painfully that is clear now that it will not happen.
Even HHDL says that Free Tibet or even a autonomous Tibet is a LOST CAUSE NOW. So no was expecting this type of result. Hence no preparation. All the preparation the Tibetan Exile Govt did was to return to a free and independent Tibet. Wrong preparations. Even now, which Lama or Minister is completely respected by the whole of the Tibetan populace? No one. There are high lamas that certain sects revere and other sects respect, but to be their overall political leader is impossible.
Once HHDL passes away, the whole Exiled Tibetan govt will crumble and fall apart. The ministers will immigrate to other countries if they can or just fall into obscurity. The Tibetans themselves in India and Nepal will be in a precarious situation. They will have to become Indians or return to Tibet or other host countries. Their priviledges will be taken away gradually within a decade as the govt of India will change. India will want to have stronger trade relations with China, their huge neighbour to the North. There will be no spokesperson for them anymore. There will be pockets of Free Tibet protests perhaps from the youths, but the older Tibetans are content with their Tibetan teas, prayers wheels and evening circumambulations. But gradually those protests will sink into silence. Tibet is a part of China and no country is willing to fight or oppose China otherwise.
Any other lamas would never be able to command the respect of all Tibetans on a political level, except HH the Panchen Lama and that is a gone case now.
So succession is just 'interesting' speculation or talk and it will end up nowhere. The institution of the Dalai Lamas are unique and very special. But this is the last of the Dalai lamas unfortunately. His incarnations will appear, but not in the capacity like the previous fourteen incarnations.
