What you said make sense. Just this year alone, the Dalai Lama has mentioned twice about the possibility of having more than one reincarnation, indirectly saying that the China Panchen Lama could be real. Why does he want to emphasize that after so many years if not for the sake of his future reincarnation?
My theory is the Dalai Lama has already decided on his next rebirth to be born in China. The purpose of him highlighting the fact that his future incarnation will be in India is to make sure China will recognize the one in China with the help of the China Panchen Lama. I believe the Dalai Lama knows the China Panchen Lama will be able to recognize the real Dalai Lama.
That is an interesting point of view. However, in His Holiness's latest statement, he said that there is a possibility of 2 Dalai Lamas in the future. One of them will be from India and the other one from China. He also said that China Dalai Lama will not have the trust and respect of the people. His Holiness the Dalai Lama keep changing his statements and it is very confusing.
I believe His Holiness is trying to accomplish something that we are unable to understand at this moment. Nevertheless, we must have faith in His Holiness because he has been through a lot to bring Buddhism to the world and so far he has proven himself. However, he is not young anymore and his time on earth in that body is running out soon due to old age.
Tibetans are still stranded outside of Tibet without the support of a proper government with no future ahead. It will be the best scenario for all the Tibetans to return to Tibet but it has been made nearly impossible thanks to the Tibetan government. Hence, His Holiness has to resort to use extreme methods to achieve his goals before it is too late.