The two things that are now in place for the total split between religion and politics, for the Tibetans -in –exile, are the announcement (with a note of finality) by the Dalai Lama of his retirement from politics , and the election of a new and politically capable prime minister as leader of the TGIE. However, this split will only come into real effect with the passing away of the Dalai Lama.
Looking into the future, the way I see it is that the politically shrewd Lobsang Sangay, the new Prime Minister, is likely to bow to the wishes of China and let them choose the next Dalai Lama. (At the same time, I wonder what ‘state/country’ the new Prime Minister is going to lead or govern, seeing that there is currently no country of Tibet nor will there be in the future, with the dominance of China and the improbability of their allowing Tibet to be a separate state or country).
Like the case of the Panchen Lama, China will surely choose its own candidate for the position of the next Dalai Lama and declare their choice as the legitimate one. As a ‘China’ candidate, the next Dalai Lama( as Tibet’s spiritual leader)will definitely tow the line with China. With this ‘scenario’, the practice of Dorje Shugden, currently gaining rapid ground in China, will surely become a central Dharma Protector practice. It follows naturally that Lama Tsongkhapa’s lineage of teachings and practice will also spread and grow rapidly. Dharma will spread its wings all over China. The ban will by then have faded away.