You are right to say the Karmapa Ogyen Trinley is clever not to go back to India. If he goes back to India, he will be controlled by the CTA again. This time, the control from the CTA will be tighter than before, it will be a real prison for him.
To the Karmapa Ogyen Trinley, it doesn't matter where he goes. What he wants is to be able to spread Dharma to benefit people. He will go wherever he is needed or wherever he can benefit people. He is a real Dharma practitioner because what matters to him is to benefit people.
It will be good if he goes back to China because many people there need Dharma and they are hungry for Dharma. He will be able to train good quality Dharma teachers in China too. But again, we will never know his plan but one thing for sure is, he will continue to benefit all sentient beings.
Yes, I agree with you. Karmapa Ogyen Trinley should not go back to India because he is going back to a trap. CTA has not been treating him well for the past two decades, and they will not treat him any better if he returns to their side. He is lucky to be able to escape from their clutches one year ago, and he should not repeat the same mistake.
CTA is dying to get him on their side and use him to manipulate the poor ignorant Tibetans who blindly follow whatever their government says. CTA needs a high lama to use as a puppet to exert the control onto their people. Since His Holiness the Dalai Lama is getting old, and he can pass away anytime, CTA needs to have someone on standby to take over.
The Karmapa will be the best choice and CTA will surely jump on him on any opportunities they have. They have tried to snatch Karmapa Thaye Dorje onto their side, but fortunately, Karmapa Thaye Dorje is smart enough to avoid them. No one ever gets better when CTA is associated with them. They are like a curse to whoever that joins them on their sinking boat.